In times of economic turbulence, uncertainty becomes a constant companion at work. We have learned that our brains and bodies have evolved to handle change – but only up to a point. Neuroscience tells us the brain is hardwired to reduce uncertainty by learning from the past and predicting the future. When outcomes deviate from our expectations, our stress response kicks in: heart rates climb, breathing speeds up, and the “fight-or-flight” centers (like the amygdala) light up. In practice, that means employees – and leaders – can feel anxious, unfocused or even frozen when the market shifts unexpectedly. Recent studies show that during stress, people report more negative emotions and make poorer decisions. In other words, our reptile brain kicks in and narrows our perspective just when broad thinking is needed most.
Immediately
Managing this reaction is key. First, recognizing the brain-body connection helps. Under pressure, our sympathetic nervous system accelerates heart rate and hormones, while the parasympathetic system (rest and digest) gets suppressed. Mindful leaders can use tools like deep breathing or short breaks to engage the parasympathetic side – literally slowing the heart and calming the mind – so complex thinking can resume. In practice, we encourage teams to pause and breathe when facing uncertainty, or do a quick stretch break; these small acts send a signal to the brain that it’s safe to switch from panic to planning.
More broadly
Another insight from psychophysiology is that not all stress is bad. There’s an “inverted U” relationship between stress and performance: a moderate dose of challenge can sharpen focus, but too much will tip the curve and degrade performance. In our work with teams facing layoffs or market shocks, we see this play out: A reasonable level of pressure can energize people to collaborate and innovate, but chronic fear exhausts them. The goal is therefore twofold:
- Reduce unnecessary uncertainty where we can (through clear communication and transparency), and
- Help the team cope better with the uncertainty that remains.
Prime yourself
From a psychological perspective, how we frame uncertainty makes a huge difference. Research on mindsets shows that people who view challenges as opportunities tend to cope better than those who see them as insurmountable threats. This is similar to findings in sports psychology: elite athletes often reframe high-risk situations as chances to learn or excel rather than as disasters waiting to happen. For instance, mountain climbers and extreme-sport participants practice cognitive rehearsal – they imagine difficult scenarios (like a sudden storm or equipment failure) so their brains are primed with a plan if it happens. This kind of “mental practice” helps them respond automatically and calmly when real surprises come. In the boardroom, We have helped CEOs use tabletop exercises and scenario planning to achieve a similar effect. The more we “pre-live” uncertainties, the less paralyzing they become.
Team resilience often follows the same principle. Just as a sailing crew runs through storm drills, we advise organizations to simulate crises. In one company, we ran a mock supply-chain shutdown: the team outlined their worst fears, then plotted step-by-step responses together. The leader’s role wasn’t to solve everything on the spot, but to demonstrate calm, structured thinking. Afterward, the group reported feeling more confident, because the unknown had been turned into something concrete they’d already rehearsed. Psychologically, this builds self-efficacy: each person sees that even in chaos, they have strategies and support to rely on.
Get stressed
Neuroscience also tells us that our brains are adaptable – we can get better at managing stress. Studies of neuroplasticity show that regularly facing challenges (and recovering from them) actually strengthens the prefrontal circuits used for regulation and decision-making. We often draw a parallel with fitness: just as muscles grow through repeated exertion and rest, so does our “mental muscle.” High-risk athletes embody this principle. For example, surfers training for big waves will practice in smaller, but still challenging, conditions until their responses become automatic. They learn to breathe evenly, scan the horizon, and make split-second maneuvers without panicking. In business, we can mirror this by encouraging a surge-and-recover approach: tackle a tough issue intensely with the team, then consciously step back to reset before the next push. Over time the team’s tolerance for uncertainty grows – they learn to bounce back faster, not bounce off the wall.
Culture helps
Another useful comparison comes from team sports: elite teams thrive on trust and shared mental models. When a rugby team is behind, if they trust each other and have practiced various plays, they don’t fall apart – they rely on their drills and each other’s cues. In organizations, we emphasize the same concept of collective resilience. Leaders should ensure that roles and backup plans are clear, communication channels are open, and people feel psychologically safe to speak up. If an outcome is uncertain, a team that has pre-aligned on purpose and methods can navigate surprises together. This aligns with findings in organizational psychology: high-trust teams adapt better because individuals don’t waste mental energy fearing blame, freeing them to focus on creative solutions instead.
What to do?
Practically, what does all this science mean for a leader today?
- Maintain clear, honest communication. Ambiguity about changes (layoffs, restructuring, market shifts) is one of the biggest stressors at work. By sharing what is known and acknowledging what is still unknown, you reduce “idle” uncertainty that people tend to catastrophize in silence.
- Encourage routines that ground the team. Neuroscience suggests even simple rituals—like a morning team huddle with a brief check-in—can anchor us in the present and buffer anxiety.
- Build skills for uncertainty tolerance. This might mean short training sessions on stress management (breathing, mindfulness, focus techniques), or peer-coaching where employees share stories of adapting to change. It could also include adjusting performance metrics: if goals shift suddenly, acknowledge it explicitly and reset expectations together, so people don’t feel they’re working blind.
- We also draw on research about cognitive framing: under stress, people tend to use mental shortcuts (heuristics) because they conserve cognitive resources. Leaders can help by providing structure – decision trees, prioritization frameworks, or simple “next-step” guides. For example, in one company we introduced a “rapid-response toolkit” for uncertain times: a checklist of steps (assess, ideate, decide, review) that any team could apply to a new challenge. This reduced the default panic move (like “do everything at once”) and replaced it with a pattern they could learn and rely on, similar to how first responders have protocols.
- Finally, it’s important to care for the body as we deal with uncertainty. Psychophysiological research reminds us that stress accumulates if ignored. we make sure to model and preach basic self-care: encouraging breaks, decent sleep, and some form of physical exercise. Even short walks can activate the parasympathetic nervous system and clear the mind.
- Leaders who openly take care of themselves send a message to their team that it’s not weakness to slow down – it’s strategic survival. We’ve seen, for instance, that when executives ignore exhaustion, small mistakes multiply; but a brief “de-stress break” meeting (even five minutes of stretching) can reset everyone’s focus.
Managing uncertainty isn’t about eliminating it—that’s impossible. It’s about understanding our human responses and shaping them. By using neuroscience and psychology insights, we help leaders turn volatility into a source of learning rather than a trigger for panic. Like trained athletes and elite teams, we can prepare for the unexpected, practice adaptive mindsets, and build routines that keep our cognitive engines running smoothly. The result is a team that doesn’t just weather the storm of economic instability – it navigates it with greater confidence and emerges stronger.
References
- Peters, A., McEwen, B.S. & Friston, K., 2017. Uncertainty and stress: Why it causes diseases and how it is mastered by the brain. Progress in Neurobiology, 156, pp.164–188.
- Wemm, S.E. et al., 2016. Effects of acute stress on decision making. Frontiers in Psychology, 7:1540.
- Levy, I. & Schiller, D., 2023. Uncertainty in learning and decision-making: Introduction to the special issue. Cognitive, Affective, & Behavioral Neuroscience, 23, pp.459–464.
- Peters, A., McEwen, B.S. & Friston, K., 2017. Uncertainty and stress: why it causes diseases and how it is mastered by the brain. Progress in Neurobiology, 156, pp.164–188.
- Starcke, K. & Brand, M., 2016. Effects of stress on decisions under uncertainty: A meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 142(9), pp.909–933.
- Thayer, J.F. & Lane, R.D., 2009. Claude Bernard and the heart–brain connection: Further elaboration of a model of neurovisceral integration. Neuroscience & Biobehavioral Reviews, 33(2), pp.81–88.
Dr Dominic Irvine and Professor Emeritus Simon Jobson